Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 02 2021 | 11018 | 48322 | 354 | 104 | 95 | 147 |
| March 03 2021 | 11033 | 48406 | 355 | 105 | 106 | 149 |
| March 04 2021 | 11058 | 48511 | 356 | 105 | 96 | 139 |
| March 05 2021 | 11030 | 48562 | 356 | 105 | 92 | 128 |
| March 06 2021 | 11042 | 48606 | 356 | 105 | 85 | 123 |
| March 07 2021 | 11046 | 48667 | 356 | 105 | 73 | 123 |
| March 08 2021 | 11046 | 48682 | 356 | 105 | 63 | 112 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.6 | 15.3% | 9 | 0.08% | 11 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.9 | 20.3% | 12 | 0.09% | 22 | 0.16% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.6 | 11.9% | 7 | 0.03% | 17 | 0.08% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.01% | 4 | 0.03% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.4 | 8.5% | 5 | 0.05% | 12 | 0.11% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.3 | 22% | 13 | 0.1% | 21 | 0.17% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.4 | 8.5% | 5 | 0.04% | 7 | 0.06% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.0 | 11.9% | 7 | 0.07% | 14 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 0 | 5.3 | 100% | 59 | 0.06% | 108 | 0.1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 02 2021 | 7052 | 28475 | 222 | 92 | 52 | 76 |
| March 03 2021 | 7057 | 28527 | 222 | 93 | 48 | 73 |
| March 04 2021 | 7065 | 28569 | 222 | 93 | 56 | 76 |
| March 05 2021 | 7072 | 28600 | 222 | 93 | 59 | 79 |
| March 06 2021 | 7077 | 28638 | 225 | 93 | 64 | 77 |
| March 07 2021 | 7080 | 28656 | 225 | 93 | 59 | 71 |
| March 08 2021 | 7082 | 28663 | 225 | 93 | 53 | 73 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.9% | 1 | 0.01% | 1 | 0.01% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 0.3 | 5.7% | 3 | 0.04% | 10 | 0.12% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.7 | 17% | 9 | 0.13% | 7 | 0.1% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.4 | 7.5% | 4 | 0.05% | 1 | 0.01% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 0.6 | 11.3% | 6 | 0.08% | 5 | 0.06% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.1 | 24.5% | 13 | 0.13% | 18 | 0.19% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.6 | 9.4% | 5 | 0.06% | 16 | 0.19% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.6 | 22.6% | 12 | 0.17% | 15 | 0.21% |
| All ages | 2 | 5.4 | 100% | 53 | 0.08% | 73 | 0.11% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 02 2021 | 5369 | 18761 | 237 | 76 | 74 | 113 |
| March 03 2021 | 5393 | 18790 | 238 | 76 | 94 | 126 |
| March 04 2021 | 5401 | 18834 | 238 | 76 | 96 | 131 |
| March 05 2021 | 5412 | 18854 | 237 | 76 | 103 | 130 |
| March 06 2021 | 5421 | 18863 | 238 | 76 | 100 | 126 |
| March 07 2021 | 5426 | 18882 | 238 | 76 | 99 | 127 |
| March 08 2021 | 5430 | 18894 | 238 | 76 | 94 | 125 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.02% | 6 | 0.11% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.6 | 8.5% | 8 | 0.15% | 12 | 0.22% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 1.0 | 13.8% | 13 | 0.29% | 16 | 0.35% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 2.1 | 22.3% | 21 | 0.39% | 26 | 0.48% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.6 | 9.6% | 9 | 0.18% | 12 | 0.24% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 2.4 | 24.5% | 23 | 0.34% | 29 | 0.43% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.3 | 12.8% | 12 | 0.19% | 16 | 0.25% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.9 | 7.4% | 7 | 0.11% | 8 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 4 | 9.0 | 100% | 94 | 0.21% | 125 | 0.28% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 02 2021 | 12246 | 53035 | 365 | 80 | 122 | 187 |
| March 03 2021 | 12268 | 53183 | 369 | 80 | 141 | 182 |
| March 04 2021 | 12277 | 53248 | 370 | 80 | 144 | 184 |
| March 05 2021 | 12291 | 53326 | 372 | 80 | 134 | 163 |
| March 06 2021 | 12287 | 53383 | 372 | 80 | 116 | 154 |
| March 07 2021 | 12291 | 53464 | 372 | 80 | 112 | 155 |
| March 08 2021 | 12291 | 53525 | 372 | 80 | 90 | 149 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.3 | 14.1% | 14 | 0.12% | 19 | 0.16% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.3 | 9.1% | 9 | 0.05% | 16 | 0.1% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 2.0 | 18.2% | 18 | 0.08% | 29 | 0.14% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.4 | 10.1% | 10 | 0.07% | 14 | 0.1% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.3 | 17.2% | 17 | 0.13% | 24 | 0.18% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.9 | 10.1% | 10 | 0.07% | 22 | 0.16% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.9 | 15.2% | 15 | 0.11% | 19 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.4 | 6.1% | 6 | 0.05% | 15 | 0.12% |
| All ages | 0 | 8.4 | 100% | 99 | 0.08% | 158 | 0.13% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 02 2021 | 40577 | 322084 | 1241 | 273 | 716 | 1231 |
| March 03 2021 | 40641 | 322293 | 1244 | 273 | 695 | 1201 |
| March 04 2021 | 40763 | 322804 | 1246 | 278 | 762 | 1179 |
| March 05 2021 | 40814 | 323082 | 1249 | 278 | 773 | 1070 |
| March 06 2021 | 40895 | 323450 | 1251 | 278 | 772 | 1034 |
| March 07 2021 | 40944 | 323893 | 1253 | 278 | 753 | 998 |
| March 08 2021 | 40973 | 324141 | 1256 | 278 | 708 | 972 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 3.0 | 4% | 28 | 0.05% | 42 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 10.3 | 23% | 163 | 0.23% | 240 | 0.34% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 17.4 | 32.9% | 233 | 0.22% | 326 | 0.31% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 7.9 | 11.7% | 83 | 0.11% | 111 | 0.15% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 7.3 | 10.7% | 76 | 0.12% | 96 | 0.15% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 6.0 | 9.9% | 70 | 0.11% | 94 | 0.14% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 3.9 | 5.2% | 37 | 0.07% | 43 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 1 | 1.7 | 2.5% | 18 | 0.04% | 20 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 29 | 57.4 | 100% | 708 | 0.13% | 972 | 0.18% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 02 2021 | 564592 | 2631712 | 26222 | 6440 | 5420 | 8260 |
| March 03 2021 | 565131 | 2634999 | 26279 | 6458 | 5556 | 8142 |
| March 04 2021 | 565808 | 2639148 | 26330 | 6470 | 5810 | 8086 |
| March 05 2021 | 566158 | 2642182 | 26387 | 6477 | 5594 | 7662 |
| March 06 2021 | 566364 | 2644343 | 26432 | 6478 | 5053 | 7192 |
| March 07 2021 | 566693 | 2647864 | 26457 | 6481 | 4542 | 7118 |
| March 08 2021 | 566871 | 2649740 | 26484 | 6481 | 4064 | 6873 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 16 | 30.3 | 7.4% | 302 | 0.05% | 510 | 0.08% |
| 10-19 | 25 | 62.6 | 17% | 690 | 0.09% | 1131 | 0.15% |
| 20-29 | 30 | 65.1 | 16.7% | 678 | 0.09% | 1133 | 0.15% |
| 30-39 | 30 | 49.3 | 13.6% | 553 | 0.07% | 920 | 0.12% |
| 40-49 | 20 | 51.9 | 13.5% | 549 | 0.08% | 958 | 0.14% |
| 50-59 | 23 | 55.3 | 15.5% | 629 | 0.08% | 1062 | 0.13% |
| 60-69 | 20 | 41.0 | 10.7% | 434 | 0.06% | 738 | 0.1% |
| 70+ | 14 | 16.4 | 5.6% | 229 | 0.04% | 421 | 0.07% |
| All ages | 178 | 371.9 | 100% | 4064 | 0.07% | 6873 | 0.12% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.3 | 16.2 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 11.7 | 7.2% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 12.9% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.6 | 9 | 8.1 | 30.6% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.4 | 9.7 | 13.6 | 7.1 | 11 | 9.4% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.8 | 33.8 | 31.4 | 57.4 | 86.7 | 16.7% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.8 | 14.9 | 15 | 371.9 | 632.7 | 11.5% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-03-29 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5575"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges